NFL Week 3 game picks Falcons top Saints Steelers edge Bucs

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NFL Week 3 game picks: Falcons top Saints; Steelers edge Bucs Published: Sep 20, 2018 at 04:45 AM Elliot Harrison The relevance of wins and lo ses truly begins Thursday night, and continues on through the weekend. Week 3 means something, at least if past trends are to be valued. With quite a few teams still searching for their first W of the season, the data says (shouts) that those wins better come now. Since 1990, only three teams have ever started 0-3 and made the postseason (no squad has ever started 0-2-1). Those three -- the 1992 , '95 and '98 -- bucked the trend, although I am not sure how helpful that is, given that the last occurrence of 0-3-woeful-turned-Super-Bowl-hopeful came 20 years ago. Not to mention, but we'll mention, each of those teams carried some unique juice: 1992 Chargers: Young nucleus of a team that hit the two seasons later.1995 Lions: Barry Sanders-fueled team with two receivers who caught 231 pa ses between them in '95. And hey, Detroit made the playoffs six times in the '90s.1998 Bills: Leftovers of a group that went to four Super Bowls. The '98 team was led by a white-hot Doug Flutie. On the 0-2 note, one embittered fan base had some thoughts on ... - how are Arizona not #32 in your ? British KeimGang (@BritishBirdgang) Because they are No. 1 in your heart. Please make cardinals number 32. We deserve it. ChrisFalk (@ChrisFalk) I thought about it, Chris. But now you have something to strive for, since the postseason is a pipe dream. You're welcome. Heard from non-Birdgangers, as well: Sleep, yes. I also need a on VHS for my collection. Can you help with that? Thought this was a good time to ask. It's Joe Ferguson versus Dan Marino. Miami started 11-0 that year. Buffalo, 0-11. Good talk. Like the Cards, the and are winle s. Except, many folks thought New York and Houston would make the postseason. The loser of almost a suredly won't. For that result, and every other, check out my predictions below. Send your Tyler Ennis Jersey take, as well: is the place. SUNDAY, SEPT. 23 27, 24 (OT) Man, oh man, this is an important tu sle in the NFC South. The 2-0 Bucs are playing the struggling on Monday and are already up one game in the division. The carry one lo s in the division, and they certainly don't want another. The , meanwhile, , with , and on IR, dealing with a knee injury and skipping Wednesday's practice with a calf injury. They must take advantage of being at home against an opponent that, without , is not playing its best football. New Orleans couldn't run a lick until late. Going to the other side: Without Jones or Neal in run support, Atlanta's outcome might very well fall on Dan Quinn's front four. And oh yeah, Takk McKinley . That said, who trusts the New Orleans defense, particularly the secondary? Rookie receiver got on the board for the first time last week. Might make it a deuce this Sunday. 23, 21 Ah, the matchup of the 2005 first-round quarterbacks. You remember: Twenty-one-year-old went first overall, while sat with his hair perfectly gelled for two hours, waiting, frustrated, for his number to be called. The latter is considered 1B among the greatest pa sers going right now, while Smith has been unheralded (and disposed of by two different teams) over his career. Smith posted the NFL's best pa ser rating in 2017 (104.7), but he couldn't exploit a deficient secondary . He'll have to do better Sunday, because the should score at least 24 on this Washington defense. Guarantee you Rodgers will take more shots downfield than Indy QB , who mostly dinked, dunked and threw short timing routes in Washington in Week 2. Going vertical (or even intermediate) more often should create small pockets for RB . Don't expect him to have a huge day against those DTs, though. Good game. 20, 16 Even with this week, don't count out those pesky -- not after . does Indianapolis defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus deserve credit. Sure, the story in this game will be the return of former offensive coordinator (and current head coach) Frank Reich, who played a huge role in Philly's LII win. But Eberflus' defense has played above its head, especially against the run. It took the better part of three quarters before the offense got going against the , while was shut down by Indy (11 carries for 20 yards) in Week 2. As for the , they need to get more creative in the pa sing game with Wentz under center once more. Hopefully they'll have available, and they need to get back sooner than later. With Sproles and still-recovering receiver out, and with suffering a fractured fibula that sent him to injured reserve, fill-in QB had to hold the ball too much in . Including receiver , who was placed on IR earlier this month, Philadelphia is down three of its top four receivers and its pa s-catching running back. is solid, but he's not a premier WR1. Indy's best chance is through a turnover-free showing from . 34, 9 This just looks ugly on paper. And it probably will on the field, too. Who knows, maybe the will force two quick turnovers, one being a scoop-and-score, and go up 13-0 or 17-0. Or maybe (probably) 's protection will break down in 2.3 seconds, and the Buffalo rookie will get sacked five times and hit a dozen others. Here's what I know: This is an awful matchup for a team that has offensive line woes. If Buffalo can't establish the run again (83 yards in Week 1, 84 in Week 2), Sean McDermott's bunch has no chance. Look for Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer to play the long game, allowing the better roster to prevail without taking unnece sary risks offensively. E sentially, he won't give a turnover-starved defense any freebies. 26, 20 I'm not picking against the again. The reasons are two-fold: 1) When I do pick against Miami, my Twitter timeline blows up. (Although fans I picked them to get shut out last week, which . They were mad as Jay Fiedler over it.) And 2) Oakland is not strong enough right now, especially on defense, to mitigate mental errors like the ones that cost them last week. Miami's defense is playing well, while the Fins have two effective running backs in and . They can afford to play somewhat safe and still gain yards against a suspect Raider D. On a related note, I have the 1973 AFC Championship Game (Oakland at Miami) on DVD. The made their second straight with a strong running game, their bend-but-almost-never-break defense and a mobile quarterback who didn't throw picks. Sound familiar? Side note: The must feed . Stop with the whole approach. Lynch gives you a better chance to win, Coach Gruden. 26, 17 The looked out of sorts last Thursday night. But that off-kilter performance will be 10 days old by the time they host the on Sunday. Denver's offense has been mired in orange sherbet for lengthy stretches thus far. (Call it for three quarters .) The also benefitted from two home dates to start the season. Now they go on the road against a rested team whose defense has enjoyed plenty of time to study . One advantage for Denver: Tailback could make hay in the air game if injured LB C.J. Mosely . If Baltimore linebackers and play well, though, I think it's for the visitors. That is, unle s Keenum can take advantage of the Jimmy Smith-le s secondary. But don't bank on it. 24, 20 This interconference meeting might not sound sultry, but frankly, it's a damn-good matchup ... strategically speaking, of course. , the ' defense faced in his first meaningful game in a year and a half; , they got an immobile . presents an entirely different problem. League observers thought he would run le s in new coordinator Norv Turner's offense, yet, here he is with 100 yards rushing through two weeks -- more than . (Not sure how to feel about that nickname yet. Giving it a C- right now.) So what does more running from Newton mean? The ' linebackers and safeties play well. Safety made plays close to the line of scrimmage last week for Cincinnati. He'll have to again, as the ' LBs are not the strength of this group. Oh, what about rookie receiver , who has just one catch for 51 yards thus far? Get him involved early, Norval. 23, 21 , this is the first desperation matchup of the year. Since 1990, teams starting 0-2 have made the postseason 12.1 percent of the time. How have the 0-3 teams done? You don't want to know the percentage. My comrade , which will be the deciding factor Sunday. That's because the haven't been getting to the quarterback nearly enough, despite the way the pa s rushers' fans spout off in defense of their defense. J.D. Clowney, and are the stars, but Houston's three team sacks thus far have come from and . Something has to give -- as in, give positive production -- this week for one of these squads in this area. Big Blue has enough trouble at one corner spot, , for QB -- who fared better -- to exploit. Watson hasn't jumped off the tape yet, but that'll change this week. 24, 13 Brandon Ingram Jersey Don't laugh, but the are a tough out for these Jags. Just ask Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone, who watched his team struggle mightily against this AFC South rival last season ... . The question will be whether backup QB starts again for Tenne see or if plays -- and if Mariota suits up, whether he can make those hardball throws outside the numbers. (He's not going to have big windows against the Jags' secondary.) Tenne see's seam game has been hemmed in by the lo s of tight end . If Gabbert must go for Mariota, expect another conservative game plan; Gabbert threw 20 pa ses at 5.9 yards per clip . If I were Marrone, I would injured running back for a second straight week. Tenne see's offense simply isn't at full throttle. 37, 30 Like the and on "Thursday Night Football," this tilt brings back memories of the cla sic NFL, and a cla sic grudge match: will forever be remembered by all those who were there and who watched it. linebacker Derrick Thomas won the day day, sacking Young three times in K.C.'s 24-17 win over San Francisco, and methinks whoever generates the most pa s rush in this contest will prevail, as well. To be frank, the need it more. While the front performed well last week, Detroit's late offensive flurry tired both the front seven and the back four out. If San Francisco was pre sed by the ' offense, wait until the D gets a load of and friends. The have put up 80 points and eclipsed 800 yards in two games. 28, 20 Before the season began, I picked the to win this L.A. love-fest. (Well, maybe is a strong word for Los Angeles and football.) I would to pick the Bolts -- if was going to be on the field. , coach Sean McVay can slide protection, given that he can trust left tackle against anyone. One week after facing , the will see a complete 180, the antithesis of and the Cruddy O-Line Quintet: the Greatest Show on Gra s Experience. Seriously, it's like 4 Non Blondes opening up for Soundgarden. That's the difference. Now, if plays as effectively as he did in Buffalo, look out. can take any CB 1-on-1, including and -- meaning Allen could well be the one with reason to celebrate, via or otherwise. 17, 14 Tough game to pick, frankly. The ' offense showed a little spark over the . Not a ton, but Dallas didn't need more than a growth spurt from (who played much better than he did in Week 1), given the way coordinator Rod Marinelli's defense wreaked havoc on any protection New York tried to muster. The ' offensive line ain't much better. Doubt they will make the same mental errors the did, however. Thus, becomes a larger factor. With Seattle capable of putting up more points, especially at home, quieting the crowd and lengthening drives is of more import for Dallas. In that regard, this matchup favors the . But the factor -- with receiver -- does not. 20, 10 The must generate some kind of offense -- even the tiniest morsel -- to win this week. The key is getting involved. Former Arizona coach Bruce Arians and his staff were so effective at utilizing Johnson in the pa sing game. The could take advantage of the ' linebackers in space. Rookie linebacker is an excellent athlete, but his inexperience could come into play when faced with Johnson's innate ability Vlade Divac Jersey to find windows and get into position against blitz packages, against the zone or when defenses go big nickel (five DBs, with a linebacker/safety hybrid). This game will likely be ruled by an RB, but after seeing how the Cards' run defense performed the last two weeks (allowing 136 rushing yards per contest), I'm thinking maybe it will be Chicago's rather than Johnson. 30, 23 Look for to rebound in a big way this week after to the Jags. Detroit's front four resemble the Jacksonville wall Brady faced in Week 2. Moreover, the only seem to generate a pa s rush when they blitz -- and blitzing the ' quarterback has never been the ticket. If Detroit coach Matt Patricia attacks his former team with linebackers, he's going to get till the cows come home. An advantage to that strategy is the lack of a vertical component to the New England attack. I can't imagine will have a huge role this week. Expecting the Pats to prevail. That said, if the secondary fares as it did in Jacksonville, will eat those guys alive (provided he's not off for the whole first half again). MONDAY, SEPT. 24 29, 28 What a fun "Monday Night Football" matchup this is. The Bucs are suiting up at home for the second straight week, fresh off a week in which after . Don't ha sle this 'Hoff -- he's been lights-out thus far. Enter the , unused to being winle s through two weeks and unused to their defense faring this poorly. An indicator of how fugly it's been for the Pittsburgh secondary: The have allowed opposing quarterbacks a 108.9 pa ser rating, with one out of every 10 throws resulting in a touchdown. Not completions, . So, when the opposition puts the ball in the air 10 times, one of those to ses is bound to put seven points on the board. Eesh. I anticipate Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Keith Butler will throw resources into coverage and/or pre suring FitzMagic, thus daring Tampa coach Dirk Koetter to deploy and the ground attack more frequently. Banking on a vintage performance, just when you thought they'd stink up the joint. #1-1-1 THURSDAY, SEPT. 20 17, 13 and the ' offense look to bounce back from a mediocre showing in to the , while the hope to finally close the deal on an apparent win. Cleveland's run defense was on point last week, allowing a mere 62 yards on 23 carries . Thus, the need to fuel up former Brown and that offensive line, so as to provide Darnold with a little more help than the paltry 42 rushing yards New York managed against Miami. Getting 42 yards from a Crowell-led ground game is like going to borrow your neighbor's truck for moving day and being handed the keys to a 1986 Datsun instead. Speaking of '86, the and produced a forgotten cla sic that year. Take a look: This article has been reproduced in a new format and may be mi sing content or contain faulty links. Please use the Contact Us link in our site footer to report an i sue.
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